At 4 °C the question is which route is fastest, not whether fibrillation happens — and the routes do not share an activation energy, so their ranking changes with temperature. 4 °C is the condition the rule of thumb is anchored to, so it is the baseline rather than a multiplier: everything else in this thread is quoted relative to it. That multiplier is an average over every route at once, which is exactly why it cannot tell you which one wins. Ordered beta-sheet assembly, effectively irreversible, and its endpoint is opalescence you can see rather than a peak you can integrate. So the way to answer it for your vial is to pick the method that sees fibrillation specifically and run it against a control held cold, rather than to infer a mechanism from a purity number that averages all of them.
The short version: water enables most of it, oxygen enables oxidation, surfaces enable adsorption, and agitation enables aggregation.
Deamidation converts asparagine or glutamine to the corresponding acid via a succinimide intermediate, adding one dalton. It is base-catalysed, accelerates above neutral pH and is the dominant aqueous pathway for many peptides.
In practice, hydrolysis cleaves the backbone, most readily at aspartate-proline and aspartate-glycine sequences, and is acid-catalysed. In a dry solid it barely proceeds at all.
Deamidation via the succinimide intermediate is well characterised, with sequence-dependent rates highest for asparagine-glycine motifs.
The caveat is that none of these pathways can be seen by looking at a vial, and a clear solution can be substantially degraded.
Sequence decides which pathways are even available. Check the residues.