Answer first: for a lyophilised solid the cold chain matters far less than people believe, and for a solution it matters far more than they act as though it does.
A pack that arrived hard tells you about the last day of transit only, since it will have melted and, if the ambient dropped, partially refrozen.
Degradation pathway by condition
| Pathway | Dominant when | Detected by |
|---|
| Deamidation | Solution, neutral to alkaline pH | RP-HPLC, +1 Da on MS |
| Oxidation | Light, trace metals, peroxides | RP-HPLC, +16 Da on MS |
| Hydrolysis | Solution, extremes of pH | RP-HPLC, fragment masses |
| Aggregation | Agitation, interfaces, high concentration | SEC, visual haze; often invisible on RP-HPLC |
| Freeze-concentration damage | Freeze-thaw of buffered solution | SEC, loss of recovered content |
Arrhenius behaviour means the degradation rate roughly doubles per ten degrees. A week at thirty degrees is therefore a meaningful exposure for a solution and an immaterial one for a dry solid.
Phase-change pack hold time is a function of mass, latent heat and insulation, and published figures for small parcels are on the order of one to two days.
Lyophilised tolerates the lane. That is the answer for almost every order.