Start by separating chemical degradation from physical degradation, because they fail differently and they are detected differently. Chemical degradation changes the molecule and shows up as new peaks on a chromatogram. Physical degradation aggregates the molecule and often shows up as nothing at all on reverse-phase HPLC, because the aggregate never makes it onto the column.
Freeze-concentration is the mechanism people miss. As ice forms, everything that is not water is excluded into a shrinking unfrozen fraction, so the local concentration of peptide, buffer salts and preservative rises sharply. If the buffer components crystallise at different rates, local pH can shift by more than a unit. That is why a phosphate-buffered solution can behave badly on freezing while an unbuffered one is fine.
It helps to be literal here: a domestic freezer holds roughly minus eighteen degrees and cycles by several degrees on its defrost schedule, which for a lyophilised solid is entirely adequate and for a frozen solution means repeated partial melting at the surface. If you are going to freeze a solution, an unopened chest freezer is materially better than the compartment in the top of a fridge.
Deamidation kinetics for asparagine in peptides are well characterised and strongly sequence-dependent: the residue following the asparagine dominates the rate, with glycine and serine at the n+1 position accelerating it by an order of magnitude relative to bulkier residues. That is why two peptides in the same buffer at the same temperature can have quite different shelf lives.
Worth stating: research-use-only material has no stability programme behind it at all, so any beyond-use date you apply is your own construct.
The practical rule is that time and temperature multiply, so shorten whichever one you control.