Accepted answer
The short version: a small, well-chosen panel with a baseline beats a large one without.
A twenty-analyte panel run on a healthy person will produce, on average, one out-of-range result purely from how reference intervals are constructed. That is arithmetic rather than pathology.
Relative to absolute, worked
| Quantity | Value | Derivation |
|---|
| Control-arm event rate | 8.0 % | From the trial table, not the abstract |
| Hazard ratio | 0.80 | Reported |
| Treated event rate | 6.4 % | 8.0 × 0.80 |
| Absolute risk reduction | 1.6 pp | 8.0 − 6.4 |
| Number needed to treat | 63 | 1 ÷ 0.016 |
| Relative risk reduction | 20 % | 1 − 0.80 |
The last two rows describe the same finding. Only one of them is used in headlines.
Timing matters per analyte: cortisol and testosterone are diurnal, triglycerides are postprandial, and creatinine responds to hydration and to recent training. Fixing the conditions removes most of the noise.
Reference intervals are conventionally the central ninety-five per cent of a reference population, which is the direct cause of the one-in-twenty out-of-range rate on a healthy panel.
The caveat is that a panel is not a diagnosis and interpreting one is a clinician's job, particularly when several values move together.
Same laboratory, same time, same fasting state, or the comparison is not a comparison.
7This should be linked from the help pages. – dmitri_savchuk 4 days ago add a comment