Accepted answer
In practice, this is where the anxiety in this hobby is most out of proportion to the chemistry.
A pack that arrived hard tells you about the last day of transit only, since it will have melted and, if the ambient dropped, partially refrozen.
Reported and extrapolated stability by condition
| State | Condition | Usable window | Basis |
|---|
| Lyophilised solid | −20 °C, sealed, dry | 24–36 months | Supplier guidance |
| Lyophilised solid | 2–8 °C, sealed | 12–24 months | Supplier guidance |
| Lyophilised solid | 25 °C, sealed | 4–8 weeks | Extrapolated (Arrhenius) |
| Lyophilised solid | 40 °C, sealed | 1–2 weeks | Extrapolated |
| Solution, preserved | 2–8 °C | 28 days | USP microbiological convention |
| Solution, preserved | 25 °C | 3–7 days | Extrapolated |
| Solution, unpreserved | 2–8 °C | 24 hours | USP microbiological convention |
Windows for the solid state are chemical; windows for solution are microbiological and usually shorter than the chemical limit.
Arrhenius behaviour means the degradation rate roughly doubles per ten degrees. A week at thirty degrees is therefore a meaningful exposure for a solution and an immaterial one for a dry solid.
Arrhenius kinetics predict approximately a doubling of degradation rate per ten-degree rise and are the standard basis for cold-chain design.
A cold pack tells you nothing about the eleven days before the last one.
The domestic leg is the part you control. Refrigerate it promptly.
edited 29 Aug 2025 by anja_hellstrom — added the placebo-arm figures