Accepted answer
At minus 20 °C the question is which route is fastest, not whether aggregation happens — and the routes do not share an activation energy, so their ranking changes with temperature. minus 20 °C is 25 kelvin below a refrigerator, and below the glass transition of a lyophilised cake the ten-degree rule of thumb stops applying at all — solid-state chemistry is not slow liquid chemistry, it is a different regime, and the failure modes that survive it are mechanical rather than chemical. That multiplier is an average over every route at once, which is exactly why it cannot tell you which one wins. Molecules associate without any covalent change, so the mass is unchanged and a reversed-phase run — which is performed in organic solvent — mostly dissolves the evidence before it can be measured. So the way to answer it for your vial is to pick the method that sees aggregation specifically and run it against a control held cold, rather than to infer a mechanism from a purity number that averages all of them.
Start with the sequence, because which pathways are available depends on which residues are present.
Oxidation targets methionine, cysteine and tryptophan, adding sixteen daltons per oxygen. It is catalysed by trace metals and promoted by dissolved oxygen and by light.
Aggregation is physical: peptides unfold at air-liquid interfaces and associate. Shaking maximises that interface, which is why swirling and shaking produce visibly different outcomes on the same vial.
Metal-catalysed oxidation of methionine is documented across peptide and protein formulations and is why chelators appear in some formulations.
Apparent loss in a dilute preparation is usually adsorption rather than degradation and is worth ruling out first.
Swirl, never shake. Aggregation is a handling problem more than a time problem.