Accepted answer
At 40 °C the question is which route is fastest, not whether dimerisation happens — and the routes do not share an activation energy, so their ranking changes with temperature. 40 °C is 35 kelvin above the 5 °C middle of a 2–8 °C refrigerator. The ten-degree rule of thumb — degradation rate roughly doubling per 10 K — makes that about 11 times the refrigerated rate, which is an order-of-magnitude statement and not a shelf life. That multiplier is an average over every route at once, which is exactly why it cannot tell you which one wins. Two chains join, usually through a disulfide, so the product is roughly twice the mass and shows up as a late peak — or as nothing, if it never comes off the column. So the way to answer it for your vial is to pick the method that sees dimerisation specifically and run it against a control held cold, rather than to infer a mechanism from a purity number that averages all of them.
The relevant point is that a mass shift of plus one dalton is deamidation and plus sixteen is oxidation, so degradation is often visible in a mass spectrum if anyone looks.
Oxidation targets methionine, cysteine and tryptophan, adding sixteen daltons per oxygen. It is catalysed by trace metals and promoted by dissolved oxygen and by light.
Freeze-thaw cycling drives aggregation through concentration at the ice interface and pH shifts as buffer components crystallise out at different rates. Each cycle costs something.
Metal-catalysed oxidation of methionine is documented across peptide and protein formulations and is why chelators appear in some formulations.
Swirl, never shake. Aggregation is a handling problem more than a time problem.
edited 26 May 2025 by fiadh_cronin — expanded the table to cover the lower concentration
2Worth adding that residual moisture predicts this better than any printed date. – mz_4113 8 months ago 3Confirming that opening a cold vial in a humid room is a genuinely bad idea. – h_villanueva 4 days ago add a comment