The lyophilised solid is far more robust than anything anyone says about it, and the solution is far less robust. Most of the confusion in this area comes from advice about one being applied to the other.
The temperature dependence is roughly Arrhenius over the range that matters, which in practice means every ten degrees of increase roughly doubles to triples the rate. Ten days at thirty degrees is therefore comparable to something on the order of a month or two at four degrees — bad, but not the catastrophe it feels like when you open a warm parcel.
To be exact about it, for the solid state, residual moisture is the dominant variable. A cake at two per cent water is considerably more stable than the same cake at six per cent, because water is both a reactant in hydrolysis and a plasticiser that lowers the glass transition temperature. This is why a desiccant in the outer packaging is not theatre, and why opening a cold vial in a humid room is a genuine error — you condense water onto the cake.
Where community-submitted samples with known thermal excursions have been tested at Janoshik or Medutest, the recurring finding is that lyophilised material tolerates warm transit far better than intuition suggests, while reconstituted material shipped warm does not. The asymmetry is consistent enough to plan around.
Worth stating: research-use-only material has no stability programme behind it at all, so any beyond-use date you apply is your own construct.
The single highest-value change most people can make is buying a cheap logging thermometer, because it converts an assumption about their storage into a record.