Accepted answer
In practice, the lyophilised solid is far more robust than anything anyone says about it, and the solution is far less robust. Most of the confusion in this area comes from advice about one being applied to the other.
Freeze-concentration is the mechanism people miss. As ice forms, everything that is not water is excluded into a shrinking unfrozen fraction, so the local concentration of peptide, buffer salts and preservative rises sharply. If the buffer components crystallise at different rates, local pH can shift by more than a unit. That is why a phosphate-buffered solution can behave badly on freezing while an unbuffered one is fine.
Put another way, for the solid state, residual moisture is the dominant variable. A cake at two per cent water is considerably more stable than the same cake at six per cent, because water is both a reactant in hydrolysis and a plasticiser that lowers the glass transition temperature. This is why a desiccant in the outer packaging is not theatre, and why opening a cold vial in a humid room is a genuine error — you condense water onto the cake.
The Arrhenius relationship underpinning accelerated stability testing is the basis of ICH Q1A, which is why accelerated studies at 40 °C and 75 per cent relative humidity are used to predict shelf life at 25 °C. The same relationship lets you reason about a warm transit lane, with the same caveats about extrapolation.
The single highest-value change most people can make is buying a cheap logging thermometer, because it converts an assumption about their storage into a record.
5This matches what I was told by a laboratory, for whatever that is worth. – sian_llewellyn 4 months ago 4Minor: the trial name is hyphenated in the original publication. – m_haraldsen 3 months ago add a comment