Accepted answer
Start with the physical state, because it changes the answer completely and is the first thing to establish.
That is the argument for shipping lyophilised rather than for shipping colder. A dry powder with low residual moisture is stable at ambient for months; the pathways that matter need water.
Reported and extrapolated stability by condition
| State | Condition | Usable window | Basis |
|---|
| Lyophilised solid | −20 °C, sealed, dry | 24–36 months | Supplier guidance |
| Lyophilised solid | 2–8 °C, sealed | 12–24 months | Supplier guidance |
| Lyophilised solid | 25 °C, sealed | 4–8 weeks | Extrapolated (Arrhenius) |
| Lyophilised solid | 40 °C, sealed | 1–2 weeks | Extrapolated |
| Solution, preserved | 2–8 °C | 28 days | USP microbiological convention |
| Solution, preserved | 25 °C | 3–7 days | Extrapolated |
| Solution, unpreserved | 2–8 °C | 24 hours | USP microbiological convention |
Windows for the solid state are chemical; windows for solution are microbiological and usually shorter than the chemical limit.
Specifically, a pack that arrived hard tells you about the last day of transit only, since it will have melted and, if the ambient dropped, partially refrozen.
Arrhenius kinetics predict approximately a doubling of degradation rate per ten-degree rise and are the standard basis for cold-chain design.
A liquefied pack is expected. It is not evidence of a problem.