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Why is the early eGFR dip expected rather than alarming?

Asked 22 Jun 2025Modified 13 months agoViewed 15k times
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I am reading the trial table rather than the press release, which is why the numbers differ.

I can predict the outcome but I cannot explain it, which means I will get the next case wrong.

I would like to know how confident the field actually is about this.

So what is the mechanism, and how well established is it?

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askedt_oyelaran79k4822 Jun 2025
5Do you have the population it was measured in? The figure moves a lot between them. – nkem_obiora 8 months ago
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2 Answers

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The honest answer is that the class slows progression in diabetic kidney disease and that no trial has shown it reverses established damage.

Trials in this area enrol by eGFR band, commonly from twenty-five or thirty upwards. A result from a cohort with eGFR above sixty says little about someone at thirty-five.

Relative to absolute, worked

QuantityValueDerivation
Control-arm event rate8.0 %From the trial table, not the abstract
Hazard ratio0.80Reported
Treated event rate6.4 %8.0 × 0.80
Absolute risk reduction1.6 pp8.0 − 6.4
Number needed to treat631 ÷ 0.016
Relative risk reduction20 %1 − 0.80

The last two rows describe the same finding. Only one of them is used in headlines.

Slope-based endpoints — the rate of eGFR decline in millilitres per minute per year — are increasingly used because they need fewer participants than event counts. They are legitimate and they are not events.

FLOW is the dedicated kidney-outcome trial in this class and is the appropriate citation for hard renal endpoints rather than a subgroup of a cardiovascular trial.

Cite FLOW for hard kidney endpoints, not a cardiovascular trial subgroup.

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answeredlyoph_cake78k2676 Jul 2025
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Answering this needs the eGFR entry criteria of the trial you are quoting, because renal trials enrol by kidney function and the results do not transfer across strata.

The initial eGFR dip is on the order of one to three millilitres per minute per 1.73 square metres and recovers. Reading it as harm and stopping is the error the pattern is designed to catch you with.

Concretely, urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio falls substantially in this class, often by thirty per cent or more. It is a good surrogate and it is still a surrogate; the reason FLOW mattered is that it measured the thing itself.

Earlier renal findings came as secondary composites within cardiovascular outcome trials and were dominated by the albuminuria component, which is why the dedicated trial mattered.

Albuminuria is the fast signal and the composite is the answer.

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answeredDr_Rosalind_Achebe69k14725 Jun 2025

Your answer

Ask PeptideStack is a static archive. Posting is closed, but the norms are worth stating: answer the question that was asked, show your working, cite the trial or the certificate, and say plainly where the evidence runs out.

Not medical advice. Research-use-only compounds are not approved for human use.