Look at the placebo arm before concluding anything about attribution. The placebo-arm rates for most of these events are not small, because the events themselves are common in the underlying population.
Nausea incidence in the pivotal trials runs to roughly 40 to 45 per cent at the higher doses against 15 to 20 per cent on placebo, with vomiting at roughly 15 to 25 per cent against 5 to 8 per cent. Discontinuation specifically attributable to gastrointestinal adverse events was in the range of 4 to 7 per cent. Those are the numbers to hold in mind when someone describes their experience as unusual.
The part that matters: vomiting matters mostly through its consequences. Loss of gastric fluid depletes sodium, chloride and potassium, and hypokalaemia presents as exactly the fatigue and cramping people attribute to the drug. Persistent vomiting also makes a renal panel uninterpretable, because a pre-renal picture looks like renal impairment.
SURMOUNT-1 reported gastrointestinal events as the most frequent adverse events, mostly mild to moderate and mostly during escalation, with discontinuation for adverse events in the single digits per cent[1].
The limitation of the timing heuristic is that it works well for common events and poorly for rare ones, which are precisely the ones that matter most.
Fix the fixable causes first — fluid, electrolytes, sleep, intake — before concluding that the compound is responsible.
edited 5 Jan 2025 by forty_two_c — added the method parameters
This is the first explanation of that which has actually made sense to me. – Dr_Otto_Lindqvist 5 months ago Note that the label instructions differ between agents on precisely this point. – plate_count_9k 7 months ago add a comment