PeptideStack
5.2kquestions
20kanswers
220users

How do I convert the SURPASS-3 hazard ratio into an absolute risk reduction?

Asked 1 May 2025Modified 11 months agoViewed 34k times
25

I have the full paper rather than the abstract, and the supplementary appendix.

I can do the algebra. I am not confident about the conversion factors.

If there is a standard way to lay this out, I would rather learn that than invent one.

What is the general form of this calculation?

cardiovascular
cardiovascular

Cardiovascular outcomes: the SELECT major-adverse-event result, SOUL, SUSTAIN 6 and REWIND, how to convert a hazard ratio into an absolute risk…

111 questions
clinical-trials
clinical-trials

Reading the primary literature properly: estimands, intention-to-treat versus per-protocol, confidence intervals, absolute versus relative…

913 questions
dosing-math
dosing-math

The arithmetic itself: milligrams to millilitres to insulin units, concentration after reconstitution, dose per draw, and vial-days per vial. Show…

811 questions
shareeditfollowflag
NK
askednils_karlberg13k171 May 2025
4Is there a reason to prefer the second method over the first, other than cost? – aine_mulcahy 6 months ago
add a comment

5 Answers

Accepted answer first, then by votes
94

Accepted answer

Worth being precise here: a single laboratory value is a point on a noisy curve. What you want is a trend across at least three draws under comparable conditions, and "comparable" is doing a lot of work in that sentence.

Creatinine is a muscle-derived metabolite, so a substantial loss of lean mass lowers serum creatinine and mathematically raises estimated GFR without anything happening to the kidney. If you have lost twenty kilograms, your creatinine-based eGFR is flattering you. Cystatin C is not muscle-dependent and is the measure to use when the two disagree.

Estimated average glucose from HbA1c: eAG in mg/dL = 28.7 × A1c − 46.7, or in mmol/L, 1.59 × A1c − 2.59. An A1c of 6.5 per cent is therefore about 140 mg/dL or 7.8 mmol/L. The relationship is a population regression, so an individual can sit well off the line.

SUSTAIN 6 was the original cardiovascular outcomes trial for semaglutide in type 2 diabetes and is the reference point for the class effect that SELECT later extended to a non-diabetic population[1].

Read the confidence interval, read the estimand, and compute the absolute effect yourself. It takes two minutes and it changes how the result feels.

shareimprove this answerflag
KS
answered · acceptedk_szabo45k388 May 2025
8Worth adding that the method section is where the answer usually is. – tobias_maartens 8 months ago
add a comment
Sponsored

Janoshik Analytical - Independent Third-Party Testing

HPLC purity, identity confirmation and quantified content on the vial you actually hold. Reports arrive with the chromatogram attached, not just a number.

Submit a sample
Sponsored — paired listing

GL Biochem (Shanghai) Ltd. - Direct Synthesis

Founded 1998. ISO 9001 and cGMP certified, 1,500+ staff and 200+ patents. The synthesis house behind a great many of the vials that get sent out for testing - batch-specific documentation with every order.

Visit GL Biochem
38

In practice, the hazard ratio is the relative effect. What changes decisions is the absolute effect, and converting between them requires the event rate in the control arm, which is usually in the same table and rarely in the abstract.

The rodent thyroid C-cell findings that generated the labelled warning appear to be species-specific: rodent C-cells express GLP-1 receptors at high density, human C-cells at very low density, and human calcitonin data across large trial populations has not reproduced the signal. A family history of medullary thyroid carcinoma or MEN2 is nonetheless a genuine contraindication rather than a theoretical one.

Concretely, apoB and LDL-C disagree because they measure different things: LDL-C is the cholesterol mass carried in the LDL fraction, ApoB is a count of atherogenic particles. Small dense particles carry less cholesterol each, so a person with many small particles has a concordantly higher ApoB than their LDL-C suggests. When they disagree, ApoB is the better risk marker.

The caveat is the population. Trial participants were screened, monitored and supported; the effect size in an unmonitored setting is not the trial effect size, and it is not obvious in which direction the difference runs.

If the trend across three draws is flat, the difference between draws one and two was noise. Most of what people react to is noise.

shareimprove this answerflag
EL
answeredesben_lykke15k2825 Aug 2025
Two of us worked through this independently and arrived here, so it is at least reproducible. – halvard_ness 2 months ago
2Worth adding that the method section is where the answer usually is. – tandem_gradient 4 months ago
add a comment
29

Mechanically, read the estimand before the effect size. Almost every apparent contradiction between two published figures from the same trial resolves once you notice that one is a trial-product estimand and the other is a treatment-policy estimand.

HbA1c is a weighted average, not a flat one: roughly half the signal comes from the most recent month. That is why a value drawn six weeks after a change already reflects most of the effect, and why a value drawn during rapid haematological turnover reflects something other than glycaemia.

More usefully, a network meta-analysis can rank agents that were never compared directly, but only under a transitivity assumption — that the trials being linked are similar enough in population, duration and endpoint definition for the indirect comparison to hold. In this field that assumption is often visibly violated, which is why indirect rankings should be read as hypotheses.

SURMOUNT-4 randomised participants after an open-label lead-in to continued tirzepatide or placebo, and the withdrawal arm regained a substantial proportion of the lost weight over the following year[1].

The papers are readable. Read the paper rather than the summary of the paper, especially where the summary is enthusiastic.

shareimprove this answerflag
VI
answeredvialroom87k14830 May 2025
24

This is a question about what the trial was designed to answer, and the honest response is that it was not designed to answer this.

A fasting lipid panel drawn during rapid weight loss reads oddly for a mechanical reason: mobilised adipose tissue delivers free fatty acids to the liver, and hepatic triglyceride export rises. Triglycerides can transiently increase while the person is doing exactly the right thing. Draw the panel when weight has been stable for a few weeks if you want an interpretable number.

Worth being explicit that this is interpretation of published data and not medical advice. Laboratory results belong in a conversation with whoever ordered them.

None of this replaces a clinician who can see the whole picture, and the whole picture is usually where the answer is.

shareimprove this answerflag
DH
answeredDr_Wren_Halliday40k3819 May 2025
17

It helps to be literal here: start with the population. The inclusion criteria of the trial determine what its result can be extrapolated to, and the extrapolation people want is usually to a population the trial excluded.

The early fall in estimated glomerular filtration rate on treatment is haemodynamic rather than structural. Reduced intraglomerular pressure lowers the filtration rate acutely and preserves the glomerulus chronically — the same pattern seen with renin-angiotensin blockade and with SGLT2 inhibition. A dip of a few millilitres per minute in the first weeks, followed by a shallower long-term slope, is the desired trajectory, not a warning sign.

SELECT reported a hazard ratio of 0.80 (95% CI 0.72–0.90) for the primary composite major adverse cardiovascular event endpoint with semaglutide 2.4 mg in overweight or obese adults with established cardiovascular disease and without diabetes[1].

Convert everything to an absolute effect before you compare two interventions. Relative effects are not comparable across different baseline risks.

shareimprove this answerflag
DA
answeredDr_Rosalind_Achebe90k15822 Jun 2025
5Is there a reason to prefer the second method over the first, other than cost? – b_delacroix 4 months ago
add a comment

Your answer

Ask PeptideStack is a static archive. Posting is closed, but the norms are worth stating: answer the question that was asked, show your working, cite the trial or the certificate, and say plainly where the evidence runs out.

Not medical advice. Research-use-only compounds are not approved for human use.