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How do I model the twelve-month cost of each supply route?

Asked 5 Sept 2024Modified 18 months agoViewed 30k times
14

The lane and the lead time matter as much as the material for what I am doing.

I would rather understand the derivation than memorise the outcome.

Two people I asked gave two answers that differ by a factor of ten, which is suggestive.

What is the general form of this calculation?

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CO
askedcoldbox941k1385 Sept 2024

5 Answers

Accepted answer first, then by votes
54

Accepted answer

Twelve months is 52 weekly administrations across 365 days, and on a four-week ladder from the bottom of the range about 5 steps — so roughly 20 of the 52 doses are escalation doses and 32 are at maintenance. Model it in that order and the routes become comparable: doses per year first, milligrams per dose second, cost per milligram third. Anything quoted per vial hides the second of those, which is the one that changes most between the first 20 doses and the last 32. Then add what each route charges that the other does not. A prescription route carries consultation and dispensing fees, spread across the 52 doses rather than paid once. A research route carries testing, shipping, and the material lost between them. Testing is the line most sheets omit. At one lot a quarter, a test-every-lot policy is 4 assays a year; at one lot a month it is 12. That difference is usually larger than any difference in price per milligram, and it is a policy you choose rather than a cost you are quoted. Put doses per year in the top row and derive everything under it, and the twelve-month totals compare on arithmetic instead of on presentation.

Answer first: compare cost per milligram of measured peptide, not per milligram of label claim, because content varies enough to reverse a comparison.

Wastage from a reconstituted vial discarded at the end of its in-use period is a genuine cost, and it is a function of the diluent volume chosen at reconstitution rather than of anything the supplier did.

Change one number and it reverses: if B assays at 82 per cent, that is 8.2 mg for £52, or £6.34/mg, and the cheaper vial is now the more expensive peptide.

Carriage on international consignments scales sub-linearly with weight, which is the quantitative basis for order consolidation.

A spreadsheet built on label claim rather than measured content is precise about the wrong number.

Decide whether you are optimising cost or confidence before you build the model.

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PH
answered · acceptedpetra_hovland35k3815 Sept 2024
2Small correction: carriage amortises across the order, which changes small-order economics entirely. – petra_hovland 6 months ago
3Any view on whether two lots agreeing is worth more than one lot excelling? I think it is. – RP_C18 7 months ago
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45

On the detail: wastage from expired reconstituted vials is a real line item and nobody includes it.

Worked example. Supplier A: £60 for a 10 mg vial, content 96 per cent, so 9.6 mg for £60, or £6.25/mg before carriage. Supplier B: £52 for the same nominal vial, content 88 per cent, so 8.8 mg for £52, or £5.91/mg. B still wins here, but the gap has narrowed from thirteen per cent on the label to five per cent in reality.

Independent testing costs roughly the price of one to two vials at the services this community uses. On a two-vial order that is a fifty to a hundred per cent surcharge; on a twenty-vial order it is five per cent.

Nothing here is medical advice, and research-use compounds are not approved for human use.

Fixed-needle syringes save more peptide than most price differences do.

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PH
answeredpetra_hovland35k3826 Sept 2024
7Worth adding that legal position and enforcement posture are different things. – imani_dube 3 months ago
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21

The relevant arithmetic is that a fifteen per cent price advantage disappears against a ten per cent content shortfall plus a testing cost.

Dead-space loss is small with fixed-needle insulin syringes — a few microlitres per draw — and substantial with detachable-needle luer syringes at 35 to 100 microlitres. Across twenty draws that is up to two millilitres of solution.

Stated carefully, carriage amortises across the order. Twenty-five pounds of carriage on one vial is £2.50/mg on a 10 mg vial; on ten vials it is £0.25/mg. That single term explains most of the case for larger, less frequent orders.

Independent testing prices at the services this community uses are published and are stable enough to model.

The caveat is that optimising cost per milligram optimises for the wrong thing if documentation and consistency are what you actually need.

Larger orders are cheaper per milligram and concentrate lot risk. Price both.

edited 22 Jan 2025 by sian_llewellyn — removed a claim I could not source

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SL
answeredsian_llewellyn65k1472 Jan 2025
18

More usefully, testing cost per milligram falls sharply with order size, which is the main argument against very small repeat orders.

The full calculation: (unit price + carriage share + testing share) ÷ (nominal mg × measured content fraction × (1 − dead-space and wastage fraction)). Every term after the first is routinely omitted.

Published content assay results across the independent services show nominal and measured content differing by one to ten per cent, which is the term that makes label-price comparisons unreliable.

Larger orders reduce cost per milligram and increase exposure to a single lot, which is a real trade rather than a free win.

Include carriage and testing as per-milligram terms. They dominate small orders.

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TQ
answeredtriple_agonist_q57k3821 Dec 2024
13

The honest answer is that the cheapest headline price is frequently not the cheapest outcome.

Cost per milligram is the wrong metric entirely if you are optimising for confidence rather than price, and it is worth saying which one you are doing before you build the spreadsheet.

Syringe dead-space volumes are published per design, with fixed-needle insulin syringes under 5 microlitres and conventional luer designs at 35 microlitres or more.

Divide by measured content, not by label claim. That is the whole correction.

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TA
answeredtess_amankwah22k279 Nov 2024
2Confirming that a small first order plus one independent submission is the cheapest route. – Dr_Ravi_Selvarajah 3 days ago
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Ask PeptideStack is a static archive. Posting is closed, but the norms are worth stating: answer the question that was asked, show your working, cite the trial or the certificate, and say plainly where the evidence runs out.

Not medical advice. Research-use-only compounds are not approved for human use.