Accepted answer
The relevant physics is that a single phase-change pack in a thin-walled box holds below ten degrees for one to two days in a twenty-five-degree ambient, and considerably less at thirty-five.
Reported ranges from Chinese origins to western Europe cluster around nine to fourteen days with tracking, with inland origins adding a domestic leg and coastal ones sometimes beating the range.
What a cold pack actually holds, and for how long
| Packing | Ambient | Time below 10 °C | What that means on a 12-day lane |
|---|
| One phase-change pack, thin-walled box | 25 °C | 1–2 days | At ambient for roughly ten of the twelve |
| One phase-change pack, thin-walled box | 35 °C | under 1 day | At ambient for essentially the whole lane |
| Two packs, insulated liner | 25 °C | 2–3 days | Buys a day; does not change the conclusion |
| Lyophilised solid, no pack | 25 °C | not applicable | Dry powder is chemically stable at ambient |
| Anything in solution | 25 °C | not applicable | A different risk entirely; hydrolysis proceeds |
A liquefied pack on arrival is the expected outcome rather than evidence of a problem. A single-use logger, not a heavier pack, is what turns this from speculation into a record.
A single-use temperature data logger costs a few pounds and converts speculation into a record. If the temperature history matters to you, buy one rather than arguing about packaging.
Arrhenius kinetics predict degradation rates rising with temperature, and the rates for a dry lyophilised peptide at ambient are low enough to make short-term excursions immaterial.
Customs and legal considerations are separate from thermal ones and are the more consequential risk in most jurisdictions.
Lyophilised solids tolerate ambient transit. That is the whole answer for most orders.