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What is the reported incidence of reflux on semaglutide in TRIUMPH-1?

Asked 11 Jul 2024Modified 21 months agoViewed 21k times
6

The particulars: reflux · semaglutide · TRIUMPH-1.

I want to understand what this actually establishes, as opposed to what it is being used to imply.

My concern is that I am being invited to draw a conclusion the data does not support.

What does this actually establish, and what does it not?

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askedforty_units14k1711 Jul 2024
2The timing signature is the useful part. Everything else is confounded. – lipid_panel_q 13 days ago
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4 Answers

Accepted answer first, then by votes
82

Accepted answer

The incidence figures are dose-related but the timing is escalation-related, and conflating the two produces most of the bad advice in this area. Adverse events cluster in the one to two weeks following each dose increase, then decay.

The telogen effluvium timing signature is the diagnostic feature: hair enters the shedding phase two to four months after the insult, so shedding that starts at month three of rapid loss and peaks around month four to five is the expected pattern. Shedding that starts in week two is not telogen effluvium and warrants a different question. In either case the follicle is not destroyed and regrowth is the rule.

Local reaction versus infection

FeatureLocal reactionSterile abscessCellulitis
OnsetHours to 2 daysDays1–4 days, progressive
WarmthAbsent or minimalMildMarked
ExpansionStatic or shrinkingSlowExpanding
TextureFirm, flat or raisedFluctuantDiffuse, indurated
Systemic featuresNoneNoneFever, malaise possible
ActionObserve, rotate siteClinical reviewSame-day clinical review

Constipation outlasts the nausea because it has two causes and only one of them resolves. Gastric emptying accommodates over weeks; total intake, and therefore stool volume and the osmotic load reaching the colon, does not recover until intake does. This is why fibre alone can make it worse — you add bulk to a system that is short of water and short of motility.

The pooled gastrointestinal adverse-event rates across the STEP programme and the SURMOUNT programme are reported in the primary publications and in the FDA and EMA assessment reports, and the assessment reports are more useful because they give the placebo-arm rates alongside the active-arm rates in the same table.

Write down in advance which symptoms mean stop and seek care. It is a short list and it is much easier to write when you are well.

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answered · acceptedmarta_okonkwo87k25818 Oct 2024
6Related: the same reasoning applies to the counter-ion question. – tyndall_haze 8 months ago
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98

Timing is the most useful diagnostic feature here and it is the one most often omitted from the question.

Nausea incidence in the pivotal trials runs to roughly 40 to 45 per cent at the higher doses against 15 to 20 per cent on placebo, with vomiting at roughly 15 to 25 per cent against 5 to 8 per cent. Discontinuation specifically attributable to gastrointestinal adverse events was in the range of 4 to 7 per cent. Those are the numbers to hold in mind when someone describes their experience as unusual.

Pancreatitis red flags worth memorising rather than looking up: severe, persistent epigastric pain radiating to the back, worse lying flat and better sitting forward, with nausea and vomiting that does not settle. That combination is an urgent assessment, not a dose adjustment. An isolated lipase elevation without that picture is common and usually not pancreatitis.

Worth being explicit: nothing here is medical advice, and research-use-only compounds are not approved for human use.

Fix the fixable causes first — fluid, electrolytes, sleep, intake — before concluding that the compound is responsible.

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answeredh_villanueva50k3812 Jul 2024
5The arithmetic checks out. I ran the same numbers and got the same result. – Dr_Otto_Lindqvist 2 months ago
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66

Look at the placebo arm before concluding anything about attribution. The placebo-arm rates for most of these events are not small, because the events themselves are common in the underlying population.

Fatigue attribution is a subtraction problem. Take out the energy deficit, the dehydration, the electrolyte shortfall and the poor sleep, and what remains attributable to the drug in the trials was modest — placebo-arm fatigue rates were within a few points of active-arm rates in most of the programme. The corollary is that the fixable causes are usually the actual causes.

Injection-site reactions are more often diluent-related than peptide-related. Benzyl alcohol sensitivity is uncommon but real, and it presents as a consistent local reaction at every site with a preserved diluent and no reaction with an unpreserved one — which is a straightforward thing to establish. Injection depth is the other common cause: intradermal placement stings and welts, subcutaneous placement usually does not.

A symptom diary with dates against dose steps answers most of these questions without anyone needing to guess.

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answeredmz_411399k25829 Oct 2024
2I tested this on two lots and got the same answer, so at least it reproduces. – e_dziedzic 5 days ago
The timing signature is the useful part. Everything else is confounded. – Dr_Jonas_Halvorsen 8 months ago
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39

The honest framing is that this is very common, usually self-limiting, and occasionally the presentation of something that is not self-limiting at all — and the differentiating features are specific enough to be worth knowing.

Distinguishing an injection-site nodule from an infection: a nodule is firm, non-tender or mildly tender, not warm, not expanding, and appears within a day or two. Cellulitis is warm, tender, expanding, and often accompanied by systemic features. A sterile abscess sits between the two and is fluctuant. Warmth plus expansion plus fever is the combination that stops being a forum question.

Most of this resolves. The point of knowing the pattern is to recognise the small fraction that does not.

edited 13 Oct 2024 by lane_transit — expanded the table to cover the lower concentration

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answeredlane_transit42k387 Oct 2024

Your answer

Ask PeptideStack is a static archive. Posting is closed, but the norms are worth stating: answer the question that was asked, show your working, cite the trial or the certificate, and say plainly where the evidence runs out.

Not medical advice. Research-use-only compounds are not approved for human use.