Does a phase-change pack hold a liraglutide shipment for forty-two days in transit?

For reference: liraglutide · forty-two days.

I would rather understand the derivation than memorise the outcome.

Two people I asked gave two answers that differ by a factor of ten, which is suggestive.

What is the general form of this calculation?

Put another way, freeze-thaw damage happens at the moving ice front, not at the storage temperature. Once the sample is frozen solid and cold, very little is happening. The damage is done during freezing and thawing, which is why the number of cycles matters and the duration of the hold mostly does not.

Aggregation is the failure mode that reverse-phase HPLC is worst at detecting, because a large soluble aggregate may not elute at all and an insoluble one is filtered out during sample preparation. If your purity result comes back normal but the vial looks hazy, believe the vial. Size-exclusion chromatography is the method that sees this.

Degradation pathway by condition

On the detail: light matters for specific residues rather than in general. Tryptophan and to a lesser extent tyrosine and methionine are photo-labile; a sequence without them is largely indifferent to ambient light over the timescales in question. Amber glass is cheap insurance rather than a requirement.

Deamidation kinetics for asparagine in peptides are well characterised and strongly sequence-dependent: the residue following the asparagine dominates the rate, with glycine and serine at the n+1 position accelerating it by an order of magnitude relative to bulkier residues. That is why two peptides in the same buffer at the same temperature can have quite different shelf lives.

If the material arrived warm and it was lyophilised, test it and proceed on the result. If it arrived warm and it was in solution, the result is more likely to be interesting than reassuring.

edited 22 May 2026 by Dr_Yusuf_Adeyemi — added the placebo-arm figures