At room temperature the question is which route is fastest, not whether aspartimide formation happens — and the routes do not share an activation energy, so their ranking changes with temperature. Room temperature is not a number, so take the pharmacopoeial 20–25 °C and its 22.5 °C midpoint: 17.5 kelvin above the 5 °C middle of a 2–8 °C refrigerator. The ten-degree rule of thumb — degradation rate roughly doubling per 10 K — puts that at about 3.4 times the refrigerated rate. It is an order-of-magnitude statement about a rate, not a shelf life, and the top of the 20–25 °C band runs about 1.4 times faster than the bottom of it. That multiplier is an average over every route at once, which is exactly why it cannot tell you which one wins. A cyclic imide at Asp, eighteen daltons lighter, which then reopens to a mixture including the iso-aspartyl form — same formula as the parent, different molecule, and invisible to a mass-only method. So the way to answer it for your vial is to pick the method that sees aspartimide formation specifically and run it against a control held cold, rather than to infer a mechanism from a purity number that averages all of them.
Start with the sequence, because which pathways are available depends on which residues are present.
Freeze-thaw cycling drives aggregation through concentration at the ice interface and pH shifts as buffer components crystallise out at different rates. Each cycle costs something.
Hydrolysis cleaves the backbone, most readily at aspartate-proline and aspartate-glycine sequences, and is acid-catalysed. In a dry solid it barely proceeds at all.
A mass spectrum names the pathway. Plus one, plus sixteen, minus eighteen.