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How do I model twelve months of tirzepatide across supply routes?

Asked 16 Feb 2025Modified 16 months agoViewed 21k times
13

I have certificates from two lots and an independent result on one of them.

I would like the arithmetic checked rather than the conclusion asserted.

I have deliberately not used an online calculator because I want to be able to check the result.

Can someone show the working rather than just the answer?

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askedh_villanueva70k4816 Feb 2025
4Is this about one lot or about a supplier across lots? Different questions. – gel_pack_warm 7 months ago
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4 Answers

Accepted answer first, then by votes
67

Accepted answer

Twelve months is 52 weekly administrations across 365 days, and on a four-week ladder from the bottom of the range about 5 steps — so roughly 20 of the 52 doses are escalation doses and 32 are at maintenance. Model it in that order and the routes become comparable: doses per year first, milligrams per dose second, cost per milligram third. Anything quoted per vial hides the second of those, which is the one that changes most between the first 20 doses and the last 32. Then add what each route charges that the other does not. A prescription route carries consultation and dispensing fees, spread across the 52 doses rather than paid once. A research route carries testing, shipping, and the material lost between them. Testing is the line most sheets omit. At one lot a quarter, a test-every-lot policy is 4 assays a year; at one lot a month it is 12. That difference is usually larger than any difference in price per milligram, and it is a policy you choose rather than a cost you are quoted. Put doses per year in the top row and derive everything under it, and the twelve-month totals compare on arithmetic instead of on presentation.

The honest answer is that the cheapest headline price is frequently not the cheapest outcome.

Independent testing costs roughly the price of one to two vials at the services this community uses. On a two-vial order that is a fifty to a hundred per cent surcharge; on a twenty-vial order it is five per cent.

Cost per milligram, adjusted honestly

StepValueNote
Vial price, 10 mg nominal£34.00As advertised
Nominal cost per mg£3.4034 ÷ 10
Measured content9.2 mgIndependent content assay
Cost per actual mg£3.7034 ÷ 9.2
Dead-space loss, 20 draws4 %80 µL of a 2 mL fill
Cost per delivered mg£3.853.70 ÷ 0.96
First vial, with £110 assay£14.85Testing dominates a single vial

Dead-space loss is small with fixed-needle insulin syringes — a few microlitres per draw — and substantial with detachable-needle luer syringes at 35 to 100 microlitres. Across twenty draws that is up to two millilitres of solution.

Published content assay results across the independent services show nominal and measured content differing by one to ten per cent, which is the term that makes label-price comparisons unreliable.

The caveat is that optimising cost per milligram optimises for the wrong thing if documentation and consistency are what you actually need.

Decide whether you are optimising cost or confidence before you build the model.

edited 13 Apr 2025 by tess_amankwah — corrected a unit error in the worked example

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answered · acceptedtess_amankwah22k2711 Apr 2025
4This should be linked from the help pages. – gunnar_isaksen 7 months ago
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27

Testing cost per milligram falls sharply with order size, which is the main argument against very small repeat orders.

The full calculation: (unit price + carriage share + testing share) ÷ (nominal mg × measured content fraction × (1 − dead-space and wastage fraction)). Every term after the first is routinely omitted.

Cost per milligram is the wrong metric entirely if you are optimising for confidence rather than price, and it is worth saying which one you are doing before you build the spreadsheet.

Carriage on international consignments scales sub-linearly with weight, which is the quantitative basis for order consolidation.

A spreadsheet built on label claim rather than measured content is precise about the wrong number.

Larger orders are cheaper per milligram and concentrate lot risk. Price both.

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answeredDr_Malik_Osei19k2731 Mar 2025
18

Answer first: compare cost per milligram of measured peptide, not per milligram of label claim, because content varies enough to reverse a comparison.

Change one number and it reverses: if B assays at 82 per cent, that is 8.2 mg for £52, or £6.34/mg, and the cheaper vial is now the more expensive peptide.

Stated carefully, worked example. Supplier A: £60 for a 10 mg vial, content 96 per cent, so 9.6 mg for £60, or £6.25/mg before carriage. Supplier B: £52 for the same nominal vial, content 88 per cent, so 8.8 mg for £52, or £5.91/mg. B still wins here, but the gap has narrowed from thirteen per cent on the label to five per cent in reality.

Nothing here is medical advice, and research-use compounds are not approved for human use.

Fixed-needle syringes save more peptide than most price differences do.

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DV
answereddead_volume56k4820 Mar 2025
15

The relevant arithmetic is that a fifteen per cent price advantage disappears against a ten per cent content shortfall plus a testing cost.

Wastage from a reconstituted vial discarded at the end of its in-use period is a genuine cost, and it is a function of the diluent volume chosen at reconstitution rather than of anything the supplier did.

Independent testing prices at the services this community uses are published and are stable enough to model.

Include carriage and testing as per-milligram terms. They dominate small orders.

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answeredgrainne_ahearn50k389 Mar 2025

Your answer

Ask PeptideStack is a static archive. Posting is closed, but the norms are worth stating: answer the question that was asked, show your working, cite the trial or the certificate, and say plainly where the evidence runs out.

Not medical advice. Research-use-only compounds are not approved for human use.