Accepted answer
The strongest evidence for exercise in this context is in maintaining loss rather than producing it, and that is not a lesser claim.
A brisk hour of walking expends roughly 250 to 350 kilocalories for most adults, which is about one moderate snack. That arithmetic is why exercise alone rarely produces meaningful weight loss.
What each body-composition method measures
| Method | Measures | Sensitive to | Least significant change |
|---|
| DEXA | Three-compartment by attenuation | Hydration, positioning | ~2–3 % regional lean |
| BIA (consumer) | Impedance, modelled | Hydration, food, temperature | Not usable at this timescale |
| Air displacement | Two-compartment by density | Lung volume, hair, clothing | ~1–2 % fat mass |
| Tape and scale | Circumference, mass | Technique | Surprisingly usable as a trend |
The part that matters: non-exercise activity thermogenesis varies between individuals by hundreds of kilocalories a day and falls during energy restriction, which is a large and invisible term in the equation.
Meta-analyses of exercise-only interventions report modest mean weight loss, generally under two kilograms, against much larger effects for dietary interventions.
The caveat is that anyone with cardiovascular disease or significant deconditioning should get advice before beginning a programme.
Steps are the least-compensated expenditure. Add those first.